If care is not taken, Angola will be Africa’s largest oil producer by the year 2020, according to a report by the World Energy Outlook Special Report.
The report noted that an estimated 150,000 barrels is being lost to oil theft each day – amounting to more than $5 billion per year. This amount would be sufficient to fund universal access to electricity for all Nigerians by 2030. It estimated that about 30 percent of global oil and gas discoveries made over the last five years were in sub-Saharan Africa, reflecting growing global appetite for African resources, the World Energy Outlook Special Report said.
The report, released October 13 2014, maintained that Nigeria is the richest resource centre of the oil sector, but regulatory uncertainty, militant activity and oil theft in the Niger Delta are deterring investment and production.
In the report, a host of smaller producers such as South Sudan, Niger, Ghana, Uganda, and Kenya, see rising output; but, by the late 2020s, production in most countries with the exception of Nigeria, is in decline.
Additions and upgrades to refining capacity mean that more of the region’s crude supply is processed locally. With regional production falling back from above 6 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2020 to 5.3 mb/d in 2040, but demand for oil products doubling to 4mb/d, an upward trend amplified in some countries by subsidised prices. The result is to squeeze the region’s net contribution to the global oil balance.
The report also explained that natural gas resource-holders can power domestic economic development and boost export revenues, but only if the right regulation, prices and infrastructure are in place.
It noted that the incentives to use gas within sub-Saharan Africa are expected to grow as power sector reforms and gas infrastructure projects move ahead. But for the moment as much gas is flared as is consumed within the region.
According to the report, more than one trillion cubic metres of gas have been wasted through flaring over the years, a volume that if used to provide power would be enough to meet current sub-Saharan electricity needs for more than a decade.
Specifically, Nigeria remains the region’s largest gas consumer and producer, but the focus for new gas projects also shifts to the east coast and to the huge offshore discoveries in Mozambique and Tanzania.
