The raucous, passionate and unpredictable 2016 U.S. presidential election is on track to notch another distinction: the most wagered-upon political event ever.
With many opinion polls showing a tight race just one day before Tuesday’s election, record numbers of bettors are pouring millions into online platforms from Ireland to Iowa in the hope of capturing a financial windfall from a victory by Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
UK-based internet betting exchange Betfair said on Sunday its “Next President” market was set to become the most traded it had ever seen and expected to surpass even Brexit, the contentious UK referendum to leave the European Union.
By Sunday, roughly $130 million had been traded on who will become the next U.S. president, compared with $159 million on the Brexit referendum, Betfair spokeswoman Naomi Totten said. The amount bet so far on the 2016 contest dwarfs the roughly $50 million laid on the 2012 race.
Betfair’s “Next President” market was by far the largest of more than 70 markets on the site related to the U.S. election. As of Friday, some $140 million has been put into play on markets ranging from who will win the popular vote to how many states each party will carry.
On Ireland’s Paddy Power, which merged with Betfair earlier this year, the U.S. presidential election “is definitely on course to be the biggest political event,” said spokesman Féilim Mac An Iomaire. The site has had about $4.38 million bet on the race so far.
For Paddy Power, sporting events remain the site’s “bread and butter,” with politics more of a “niche market,” Mac An Iomaire said. Nonetheless, he expects the 2016 race to be among the top 10-most-traded events on the site.
Ladbrokes, a UK-based gambling company, said about 5 million pounds, or a little over $6 million, had been bet on the 2016 presidential election since its markets on the race opened four years ago. A Ladbrokes spokesman said that amount was “at least double” the amount wagered on the 2012 election.
The three sites all reported an 83 percent probability of a Clinton victory on Tuesday. Her probability shot up a few percentage points on Sunday after the FBI stood by its earlier recommendation that no criminal charges were warranted against Clinton in her use of a private email server.
On PredictIt, launched in 2014 and jointly run by Victoria University in Wellington, New Zealand, and Washington, D.C.-based political consulting firm Aristotle International Inc, the five most-active markets all related to the presidential election.
PredictIt is not legally permitted to disclose the amount of money traded, but its top three markets have all reached the maximum number of participants.
The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll showed Clinton with a 5 percentage point lead over Trump in the national survey – 44 percent to 39 percent – while races in the swing states of Florida, North Carolina had shifted from Clinton’s control to being too close to call.
