The opposition candidate for president in Nigeria is gaining momentum over the incumbent president, but the March 28 election result will be contested no matter what.
So says Teneo Intelligence in a note out today by Analyst Manji Cheto, who thinks the former military leader and challenger has “an edge,” but that “a last-minute upset by the incubment president remains a possibility.” Cheto adds.
President Goodluck Jonathan is banking on recent reports of the ‘successful’ counterinsurgency offensive against Boko Haram to help turn the tide on his battered reputation … However, the momentum of Jonathan’s rival Muhammadu Buhari of the main opposition All Progressive Congress(APC) continues to grow. Despite the absence of reliable polling data in Nigeria, the most important signal that he could unseat the president is the change in the voting trend this time round. Buhari’s support in the north (his home region) appears to be unwavering – he has consistently defeated his rivals there in the past three election cycles. This support is only likely to increase thanks to a growing anti-Jonathan sentiment in the region … Buhari’s strong momentum represents a serious threat to many powerful business and political interests that have benefitted from the incumbent People’s Democratic Party(PDP)’s 16-year political dominance. Consequently, entrenched interests will not easily concede a Buhari victory.”
Eurasia Group last week cited polls and trends that indicate Buhari could have a 60% chance of winning, depending on how a considerable tranche of uncommitted voters leans.
